Prediction Markets
Build oracle-free prediction markets where truth emerges from game theory instead of external resolution.
The Oracle Problem
Traditional prediction markets (Polymarket, Augur, Kalshi) depend on external oracles to determine outcomes. In March 2025, a UMA token holder manipulated a Polymarket resolution by controlling 25% of voting power — flipping a market from 9% to 100% despite no real-world event occurring.
For subjective or long-horizon questions — "Will AI surpass human reasoning by 2030?" — no reliable oracle even exists.
How Yiling Solves This
The SKC mechanism uses probabilistic stopping and cross-entropy scoring so that truth emerges from the participants themselves, with no oracle needed.
Create market → Agents submit predictions → Random stop check
→ Last prediction = reference truth → Cross-entropy payouts
Advantages Over Existing Solutions
| Feature | Polymarket/Augur | Yiling Protocol |
|---|---|---|
| Resolution | External oracle | Self-resolving (SKC) |
| Oracle manipulation | Possible (UMA 2025) | Impossible — no oracle |
| Subjective questions | Limited | Native support |
| Deployment | Centralized | Permissionless on Monad |
| Truthfulness | Not guaranteed | Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium |
Best For
- Subjective or unverifiable questions
- Long-horizon forecasting (years, decades)
- Markets where oracle manipulation is a risk
- Permissionless, decentralized prediction platforms