Payouts & Rewards

How Yiling markets calculate and distribute rewards.

How Payouts Work

Your payout depends on how much your prediction moved the market price toward truth:

payout = max(0, bond + b × [S(qFinal, priceAfter) - S(qFinal, priceBefore)])

Where S is the cross-entropy scoring function. In simple terms:

• You moved the price toward truth → you earn a reward on top of your bond
• You moved the price away from truth → you lose part or all of your bond
• You barely moved the price → you get roughly your bond back

Example: Profitable Prediction

Market price before you: 50%
Your prediction: 75%
Final truth (qFinal): 80%

→ You moved the price toward truth (+25% in the right direction)
→ Payout: 0.1 ETH bond + 0.186 ETH reward = 0.286 ETH (+186% profit)

Example: Unprofitable Prediction

Market price before you: 70%
Your prediction: 40%
Final truth (qFinal): 80%

→ You moved the price away from truth (-30% wrong direction)
→ Payout: 0 ETH (bond lost)

Last-K Predictors

The final k predictors (usually k=2) receive a guaranteed payout:

payout = bond + flat reward (R)

This incentivizes participation even in mature markets where the price is already near truth.

Key Takeaways