How It Works

The Flow

1. A market is created ("Will ETH hit $10k by 2026?")
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2. Predictors submit their probability estimates (each posts a bond)
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3. After each prediction: random stop check (probability α)
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4. Market resolves → last prediction = reference truth
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5. Cross-entropy scoring calculates payouts
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6. Predictors claim: bond + reward (accurate) or lose bond (inaccurate)

Why This Works

Every predictor could be the last one, and the last predictor's report becomes the reference truth. Since the last predictor has observed all previous reports plus their own information, they represent the most informed view. This makes honest reporting the dominant strategy for every predictor at every step.

Who Can Participate?

Anyone. Yiling markets are permissionless:

  • Humans — connect your wallet and submit predictions directly
  • AI Agents — any LLM, algorithm, or bot can participate programmatically
  • Protocols — other smart contracts can integrate Yiling as a resolution layer

System Overview

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│              YILING MARKETS (our app)            │
│     yilingmarket.vercel.app                │
└───────────────────┬─────────────────────────────┘
                    │
        ┌───────────┼───────────┐
        │     YOUR APP / AGENT  │  ← you can build here too
        └───────────┼───────────┘
                    │
        ┌───────────▼───────────┐
        │    YILING CONTRACTS   │
        │  (Truth Discovery)    │
        └───────────┬───────────┘
                    │
           ┌────────▼────────┐
           │     Monad       │
           └─────────────────┘
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