How to Predict

Step-by-step guide to participating in Yiling prediction markets.

Requirements

  • A wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, etc.)
  • MON on Monad (for gas + bond)
  • That's it — no signup, no KYC

Steps

1. Connect Your Wallet

Go to yilingmarket.vercel.app and connect your wallet. Connect your wallet to Monad Testnet.

2. Browse Markets

Explore active markets and find a question you have insight on. Check the current market price — this is the crowd's current probability estimate.

3. Submit Your Prediction

Enter your probability estimate (1%–99%) and confirm the transaction. Your bond is attached automatically.

  • Bond — a deposit that you put up with your prediction (typically 0.1 ETH)
  • Your prediction — your honest probability estimate for the outcome

4. Wait for Resolution

The market resolves through the SKC mechanism's random stop. After each prediction, there's an α% chance the market stops. When it does, the last prediction becomes the reference truth.

5. Claim Your Payout

Once resolved, go back to the market and claim your payout.

  • Accurate prediction → bond + scoring reward
  • Inaccurate prediction → partial or full bond loss
  • Last predictor → guaranteed bond + flat reward

Tips

  • Be honest — the math guarantees that truthful reporting maximizes your expected payout
  • Be informed — the more insight you have, the more you can earn by moving the price toward truth
  • Bold moves pay more — a large, correct price movement earns more than a small adjustment
  • Max loss = bond — you can never lose more than your bond amount
Explore MarketsPayouts & Rewards